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Guns, militia and social media amplify the risks of political violence during the US election


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Guns, militia and social media amplify the risks of political ********* during the US election

Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

Political ********* is hardly new to America. Since the country’s inception, gunmen have shaped its political landscape, from the Civil War to the Ku Klux Klan, to high-profile assassinations and the ******** of federal buildings. Yet the threat of political ********* has

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in recent years and intensified during the 2024 election cycle. At least 400 distinct incidents of political *********
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in the first two quarters of 2024, a nearly 80 percent jump from 2022. Targets have ranged from a former president and politicians to election administrators, municipal leaders, school officials and even
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.

The Department of Homeland Security has repeatedly

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the rising threat of political *********, identifying far-right extremists as the most significant domestic threat to ********* security. A small number of such groups are
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on the streets, though many more are active online. In the first half of 2024 alone, nearly
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local elected officials reported receiving threats. This month, the DHS
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the threat of ********* linked to the 2024 election cycle as “high.”

Motivated to *****

Political ********* is typically

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as the use of physical force to injure a person to advance a political objective. It has surprisingly strong backing in the US: In 2022, roughly
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********* adults felt that political ********* was always justified to “protect ********* democracy,” “save the ********* way of life,” or to “save the country.” Alarmingly,
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Americans strongly agreed with the statement that “in the next few years, there will be civil war in the US.” Although these figures
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by 2023, justification for political ********* is disturbingly widespread.

Within the US, a persistent undercurrent of *********** thinking and apocalyptic belief may increase the risk of political *********. A 2024

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found that around 9% of Americans surveyed in 2022–2023 held a firm belief in QAnon-like narratives, and that US institutions are “controlled by a group of ******-worshiping pedophiles who run a global **** trafficking operation.” Another 20% of Americans reported “living in what the ****** calls the end of times.” As violent and conspiratorial ideas gain traction, so too the risk that they may be acted out at the hyper-local level.

Armed and ready

The risk of political ********* is likewise amplified by the availability of firearms. The US is an outlier when it comes to guns: there are

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of them in circulation. Between
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of all Americans claim to personally own at least one firearm. **** ownership
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in the past decade with surveys showing that over half of US adults lived in a household with a **** in 2023, up from 42 percent in 2013. Intriguingly, the
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in **** ownership between 2020 and 2021 appears to have been among ******** and democratic-leaning citizens.

Whether recent purchasers or long-time owners, **** owners typically express

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for political ********* than non ****-owners, with many viewing arms as tools to be mobilized in defense of “********* values.” What is more, ******** rifle owners and people who regularly seem to be
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to see political ********* as justified, more willing to engage in it, more willing to ***** to advance political objectives, and more willing to organize a violent group.

The same 2024 survey found that among MAGA Republicans,

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in potential civil conflict and readiness to bear arms in such a scenario are notably high. Roughly 30 percent of MAGA Republicans
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a civil war is likely in the coming years—three times the rate among non-MAGA Republicans. This diverges from political ********* during the 1960s and 1970s, where ******** leftist groups were often singled out as the primary actors. Today’s violent potential has largely shifted to the far-right and is more deeply intertwined with **** culture and paramilitary groups.

America’s **** culture and political fragmentation are priming a nation that is already distinctly vulnerable to ****-related *********. In 2021, nearly

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were ******* by firearms, with ********* accounting for half of those deaths. Also striking is the role of guns in suicides, accounting for the remaining half of firearm fatalities, which collectively mark the U.S. as a deadly outlier among developed nations. Mass shootings, while accounting for
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of total **** deaths, fuel public concern.

Militia on the march

Private militias, meanwhile, are emboldened. Estimated at

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today, ********* militias have a long, turbulent history, reaching prominence in the
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and
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. By the mid-1990s there were an estimated 859 active militia though their numbers plummeted in the wake of
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. Since 2016, however, militias such as the
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and the
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have regained momentum, driven by political discontent, anti-immigration rhetoric, and endorsement from far-right political figures. Several of them participated in the “Unite the Right” rally in
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and the “Stop the Steal”
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following the 2020 election, including the Capitol riot, and others continue to mobilize around
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issues.

Federal law

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paramilitary activity in all 50 states, yet enforcement is inconsistent, and while some individuals affiliated with militia groups have been
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in recent years,
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are rare. A mix of anti-government sentiment, hyper-local organizing, and the digitally-enabled diffusion of far-right ideologies complicates enforcement, especially in politically charged or rural areas. The Biden administration released the country’s first
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to combat domestic terrorism in 2021. Amid mounting
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of their threat, members of Congress and the Senate
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the Preventing Private Paramilitary Activity Act to prohibit public “patrolling, drilling, or engaging in harmful paramilitary tactics” in 2024, though the bill has not yet been passed.

Digitally-enabled

Beyond physical confrontations, the online world is

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in the spread of political *********. Social media has revolutionized recruitment and radicalization, with platforms fostering
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where threats, intimidation, and instructions for ********* circulate with near impunity. The US Capitol Police investigated over
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against Congress members in 2023, reflecting an increase of nearly 50 percent since 2018. Meanwhile, threats to federal judges surged 150 percent from 2019 to 2023. Social media’s economic incentives for engagement
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, often leaving women and minorities particularly vulnerable to harassment.

The anonymity and viral nature of digital spaces introduce new risks. Some militias and extremist groups

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under innocuous names, building covert networks to train, organize, and radicalize users. Platforms like
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, Telegram,
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, X and online gaming communities are
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normalizing right-wing extremism, with militias recruiting “active patriots” including current and former law enforcement, military personnel, and disillusioned youth urging them to “stand up” and “be prepared” for civil war. Anti-government sentiment, migrant hostility, and
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often serve as recruitment tools.

The broader implications of ********* political ********* before, during and after the 2024 elections extend well beyond its borders. Perceptions of a weakened or violent ********* democracy could be geopolitically destabilizing. An election marred by ********* could serve as a dog whistle to autocrats and extremists worldwide that democratic processes are vulnerable and potentially embolden similar factions in other countries. Conversely, a peaceful, well-administered election could model democratic resilience, crucial as the world rounds out a record year for national elections in 2024.

The Biden administration’s recent measures to restrict militia activities and enforce penalties for unauthorized military-style drills are a positive step in the right direction. While ambitious, such measures face considerable obstacles, including constitutional concerns over state versus federal powers and strong opposition from Second Amendment advocates. And while increased federal enforcement is essential, heavy-handed policies could backfire, pushing certain groups into further radicalization.

Ultimately, America’s struggle with political ********* and domestic extremism underscores the need for a multi-pronged approach, beginning with clearer enforcement of militia laws, responsible **** laws including background checks, red flag laws and an ******** rifle ban, and stronger social media regulations and liability for platforms that allow extremist content to circulate. However, these measures require political will and public buy-in, all in short supply in the US’s polarized political landscape.

Even more important, US leaders must re-imagine a constructive political dialogue that rises above tribalism. Beyond law enforcement, addressing political ********* means tackling structural inequalities and fostering social cohesion. Measures to bridge ideological divides, strengthen bridging capital, and reduce economic inequality could foster a shared national narrative that undermines violent fringe elements. A generation raised amid political volatility and online radicalization needs constructive engagement in democratic practices and public discourse. As the November 2024 election looms, the stakes are higher than ever. The months to come may prove defining, not only for ********* democracy but for democracies worldwide.

Provided by
The Conversation


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under a Creative Commons license. Read the
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Guns, militia and social media amplify the risks of political ********* during the US election (2024, November 4)
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#Guns #militia #social #media #amplify #risks #political #********* #election

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