Staying up? Here’s all you need to know about the US election

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Staying up? Here’s all you need to know about the US election

BBC

After all the drama of a campaign like no other, election day is nearly upon us. It’s been a super-tight race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and more twists and turns are guaranteed after polls close on 5 November.

So settle in, and buckle up. Our election night guide includes the key timings and things to watch out for as we wait to get a result.

First glimpse of exit poll data

After months of second-guessing what the ********* public will decide, we will now get a glimpse into their thoughts and motivations as the first batch of exit poll data is released.

Exit polls in the *** provide a projection of the final result as soon as polls close, but ********* ones are very different. Rather than predicting the result, they give an insight into people’s priorities and opinions  – and later, into how different demographic groups voted. Pollsters combine election-day interviews with telephone polling both nationally and in the

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.

Throughout the night, expect experts to talk a lot about these states –

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,

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,

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,

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,

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,

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and

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– where voting is hard to predict and can lean *********** (red) or Democrat (blue).

Swing states

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. Both campaigns have been heavily targeting voters in these battleground areas.

East Coast polls close, counting starts

By now, polls will be closing in Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia, but these are not swing states, so the results will be predictable.

But voting will also close in the first swing state of the night,

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. Victory for either candidate could give a strong hint at which way the election could go.

Georgia was only narrowly won by Joe Biden last time. It also became the subject of false claims by Trump, who is accused of criminally conspiring to overturn his 2020 defeat.

The candidate with more votes than any other in Georgia will get 16 crucial votes out of 538 under the electoral college system.

Harris and Trump both want to gain a majority of 270 electoral college votes to win the White House. That matters more than the “popular vote” or the nationwide support they receive.

Soon afterwards, at 19:30 EST (00:30 GMT), polls close in three more states including in

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. Away from the presidential contest, there’s been huge interest in the state governor contest that pits state Attorney General Josh Stein against Trump-backed candidate Mark Robinson, whose campaign has been hit by scandals.

Polls close at the same time in Ohio, where Trump’s running mate JD Vance is a senator. Meanwhile, the two campaigns will be gathering at their headquarters for the evening – which we know will be in West Palm Beach, Florida, in Trump’s case.

At this point, some states might start to be “called” by US media outlets. They use models to project, or call, which way a state has voted, even before the full vote count has been completed.

This happens when they believe a candidate has gained a lead that cannot be beaten by their opponent. In some closely-fought swing states, this could take a long time.

The models the media outlets use draw on a variety of data, such as exit polls and actual votes counted by officials. The BBC gets this data from a firm named Edison Research.

A flurry, including crucial Pennsylvania

More polls close including, critically, in

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, the biggest prize of the 2024 swing states with 19 electoral votes. It’s also a state that’s part of the Rust Belt – areas once dominated by manufacturing that have experienced industrial decline in recent decades.

Here, a handful of counties, like Erie and Northampton, could end up making a difference.

Around now, at 20:30 EST (01:30 GMT), we expect to get more exit poll data – including a national breakdown of voting by age, race, and level of college education. This is provisional data that’s refined over a ******* of weeks.

All eyes on swing states

Polls close in more closely-watched battleground states including

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and

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. That’s 02:00 GMT for those in the *** now burning the midnight oil.

Polls also shut in

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– a focal point for the nation’s immigration debate – followed by

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, where both parties have tried to appeal to working-class voters by vowing to end taxes on tips, an hour later.

Remaining polls close – will it be a waiting game?

At 23:00 EDT (04:00 GMT), polls close across the remaining states that adjoin each other on the US mainland. The last two states close slightly later – Hawaii at 00:00 EDT (05:00 GMT) and Alaska at 01:00 EDT on Wednesday (06:00 GMT).

Traditionally, it was soon after the close of voting at 23:00 EDT in California that the race as a whole was called for one candidate or the other. A concession speech from the losing candidate followed not long later.

But few observers are expecting a speedy resolution this year, with some suggesting it could take days, rather than hours, to know the victor.

In recent elections, an increased number of postal votes has tended to delay the process. And different states have different rules on when they start tallying them.

A candidate who takes an early lead through in-person votes may end up being overtaken when postal votes and other types of ballots put in drop boxes are added later. This means early tallies may be deceptive.

Other ballot races – and big ********* votes

Despite so much focus on the presidency, voters will also be choosing new members of Congress, who pass laws and initiate spending plans. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election. In the Senate, where members vote on key appointments in government, 34 seats are being contested.

Republicans currently control the House, while Democrats have the Senate.

These two chambers can act as a check on White House plans if the controlling party in either chamber disagrees with the president.

Voters in Montana,

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, Missouri, Nebraska, Colorado, Florida, Maryland,

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, New York and South Dakota will also be asked how their state should regulate *********, which has become one of the election’s most emotive issues.

Still awake?

If you’re still up, well done for making it this far, but there’s a chance we’ll have to wait a bit longer to find out who has won. The tighter the race, the more vote-counting that will need to happen before a winner can be projected in any given place. The full nationwide count usually takes days or weeks.

To give you a flavour – in 2020, the result in

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and

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was projected four days after election day, and in

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, after more than a week by most outlets.

A very close contest could feel like a repeat of 2020. Or 2024 could be comparable to the year 2000, between George W Bush and Al Gore, which was disputed and ultimately settled in the US Supreme Court.

The neck-and-neck vote predicted by the polls and pundits in 2024 could potentially leave the door open to legal challenges by either side.

That would make the night only the beginning of the drama – rather than the final word on the 2024 election.

North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher makes sense of the race for the White House in his twice weekly US Election Unspun newsletter. Readers in the ***

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. Those outside the *** can

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#Staying #Heres #election

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