Stocks are entering the hottest period of the year

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Stocks are entering the hottest ******* of the year

A pedestrian passes in front of a statue of a bull in the Wall Street area in New York City.

Doug Kanter | AFP | Getty Images

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

What you need to know today

Oil slump boosts marketsAll major U.S. indexes rose Monday on soft oil prices while investors awaited Big Tech earnings. The pan-********* Stoxx 600 index climbed 0.41% after a choppy day of trading. Shares of Dutch health product giant Philips slumped 16.9% after the company cut its full-year forecast on weak demand from China.

Volkswagen puts the brakes on expensesVolkswagen is considering pay cuts, layoffs and plant closures in Germany, as part of plans to overhaul its business, the company’s works council said on Monday. Volkswagen isn’t earning enough revenue from its car sales, said Thomas Schäfer, chief executive of Volkswagen Passenger Cars, while it’s facing increased competition from ******** EVs.

Trump accuses Taiwan of stealing businessFormer U.S. President Donald Trump accused Taiwan of stealing the country’s chip business, he said on “The Joe Rogan Experience” podcast. Trump also said he would implement tariffs on Taiwan if he were elected president. Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon told CNBC the idea of Taiwan stealing the U.S.’s chip industry is “ridiculous.”

Trading 22 hours a day?The New York Stock Exchange currently allows electronic trading for 16 hours a day. The bourse, owned by Intercontinental Exchange, wants to expand that to 22 hours a day. Market participants are divided over whether the move is necessary or even wise. In any case, the proposal might not go forward — it has yet to receive regulatory approval.

[PRO] Tech might be in trouble, chart showsThe bursting of the 2000 dot-com bubble was one of the worst moments ever for tech stocks. Wolfe Research, a sell-side research firm, points out that a chart tracking the performance of a fund of tech stocks is showing signs that history might repeat itself. 

The bottom line

November is one of my favorite months of the year. The weather starts getting chilly as the wet and blustery monsoon, bringing cold November rain, sweeps across Southeast Asia.

Markets also like November, though for completely different reasons. They like heat, and November brings it.

Over the past decade – and even in an election year – November’s been the best trading month, on average, for the S&P 500, according to

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. The last time the S&P fell more than 1% in November was during the global financial crisis of 2008.

That observation’s corroborated by Goldman Sachs, which notes that Oct. 28 marks the beginning of “the best trading ******* of Q4 for U.S. equities with data going back to 1928,” wrote Scott Rubner, the bank’s managing director for global markets.

Markets did indeed rise yesterday. The S&P added 0.27%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.65% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.26%. That added to the S&P’s year-to-date gain, which stands at 22.1%.

That strong showing in the earlier part of the year boosts November’s seasonal effect even more, according to Bank of America’s Chief Equity Technical Strategist Stephen Suttmeier.

“When the SPX is up YTD through October, which is the likely scenario for 2024, the index is up 79% of the time for the November-December ******* on average,” wrote Suttmeier in a Monday note.

Before getting too excited, however, keep in mind analysts are bullish on stocks over a two-month *******. The year ahead stretches long and wide: nothing lasts forever, even stocks’ November reign.

— CNBC’s Alex Harring, Pia Singh, Scott Schnipper, Hakyung Kim and Tanaya Macheel contributed to this report.   

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