Iran aided Russia against Ukraine. Now it needs to call in the favor

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Iran aided Russia against Ukraine. Now it needs to call in the favor

Russian President Vladimir ****** (C) enters the hall during the meeting with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (not pictured), October 11, 2024, in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan.

Contributor | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Iran has been one of Russia’s few staunch allies throughout the war against Ukraine, but Tehran now faces the strain of indirectly fighting its nemesis ******* on two fronts.

Under pressure — but still defiant — Iran could start looking to Russia for help, given its need for greater air defense capabilities and military intelligence to detect a highly-anticipated but yet-to-materialize direct ******** ******* on Iran, analysts told CNBC.

Russia is well-positioned to provide Tehran with such capabilities, but the extent to which it will assist the Islamic Republic ******** uncertain.

“I fully expect that the Iranians have high expectations of the Russians to provide them with something,” Bilal Y. Saab, associate fellow in the Middle East and North ******* Programme at think tank Chatham House, told CNBC Thursday, noting that reputation is of the utmost importance in international relations — even among authoritarian countries.

“So if the Russians are going to bail on this, it’s going to have consequences with regards not only to its relationship with the Iranians, but to any other partner, such as the ********,” he said.

“They’ve got to maintain some kind of reputation that they are good for it, and so I have medium-to-high expectations that they would actually provide them with what they need. Now, whether they provide them with everything they need, this is what nobody knows.”

Russia is unlikely to offer military intervention against ******* on behalf of the Iranians, Saab said, given it is already “too bogged down in Ukraine.”

“It’s also too risky of a game to go against the ******* States over the Iranians … so I think that [it’s] more likely they would stay on the sidelines and try to help from as far away as possible,” he said.

CNBC has contacted the Kremlin and Iranian foreign ministry for comment and has yet to receive a response.

‘Strategic alliance’

Russian President Vladimir ****** (R) shakes hands with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian (L) during their meeting, October 11, 2024, in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan.

Contributor | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Arms transfers between the two allies have led the U.S. to describe Iran as Russia’s “top military backer,” although

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. Tehran has conceded that it sent drones to Russia before the war began, however.

Russia also denies using drones to ******* Ukrainian infrastructure, although there have been numerous instances of Iranian-made drones damaging Ukrainian infrastructure or being intercepted during the war.

In the meantime, Tehran has turned to Russia to help build up its own military capabilities, looking to procure sophisticated Russia air defense systems and a variety of combat aircraft,

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, although the details surrounding the delivery of such hardware

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.

“The provision of Iranian drones and, more recently, missiles to Russia for its campaign in Ukraine marked a significant evolution in the Russia-Iran relationship. In part, the war itself served as an accelerant to the already burgeoning Russia-Iran ties, propelling their cooperation to new heights,” Karim Sadjadpour and Nicole Grajewski from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank

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In return for Iran’s support, Russia has bolstered Iran’s military capabilities in several areas, they noted: “Iran has made notable progress in acquiring advanced conventional weaponry from Russia, allowing it to achieve some of its defense officials’ long-standing goals. In November 2023, Tehran 

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 deals for Su-35 fighter jets, Yak-130 training aircraft, and Mi-28 ******* helicopters, though only the Yak-130s have been delivered so far.”

Russia has been offering Iran “an unprecedented level of military and technical support that is transforming their relationship into a full-fledged defense partnership,”

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. “This partnership poses a threat, not just to Ukraine, but to Iran’s neighbors in the region,” he said at the time.

Fast forward to October 2024 and Russia’s appetite to bolster Tehran’s military capabilities might be waning as its war against Ukraine drags on, while Iran’s ability to supply Russia with weaponry could now be limited.

Tehran is indirectly fighting its nemesis ******* on two fronts with its regional proxies, the militant groups ****** and Hezbollah, coming under heavy and sustained ******** attacks in the Gaza Strip and in Lebanon, respectively, and looking severely weakened after the deaths of the militant groups’ leaders.

Iranian protesters shout anti-******** slogans while burning an ******** flag in a celebration for Iran’s missile ******* against *******, in Tehran, Iran, on October 1, 2024. 

Morteza Nikoubazl | Nurphoto | Getty Images

The factions, along with Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen, make up what Tehran refers to as the “Axis of Resistance,” which Iran backs in order to oppose ******** and U.S. influence in the region. That shared antipathy toward the U.S. and ******* to create a “new world order” are what largely binds Iran and Russia.

This week could bring more clarity on their deepening economic and strategic cooperation, when Russian President Vladimir ****** and his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian meet on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Russia.

Both countries have said they are close to signing a “strategic partnership agreement” — negotiations over which began in early 2022 — and this could be finalized at forum. It ******** to be seen what the partnership will entail.

An alliance, with limits

Russia is likely watching the expansion of *******’s military action in the Gaza enclave and Lebanon carefully given its own military, economic and geopolitical interests in the Middle East.

It has, so far, maintained generally good relations in the region, including with arch rivals Iran and *******, as well as deepening strategic ties with Syria, Saudi Arabia and the ******* ***** Emirates.

Mikhail Svetlov | Getty Images

As such, the fighting between ******* and Iran’s proxies could be starting to encroach on Russia’s interests in the area.

The most recent example of this is *******’s Oct. 3 ******** of Iranian forces near Syria’s Khmeimim Air Base, which has been operated by Russia since it propped up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government during the country’s civil war a decade ago.

Analysts say it ******** unclear what Russia would do to support Iran in the event of a wider and direct war between Iran and *******, questioning the depth of the alliance and given the fact that Moscow is already enmeshed in the war in Ukraine, which is a massive draw on manpower and military resources.

“The escalating conflict between ******* and Iran is beginning to impact Russian interests in the Middle East, as well as threaten a whole range of Russian-Iranian projects,” Nikita Smagin, an Iran expert with the Russian International Affairs Council,

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“Nevertheless, Moscow prefers to adapt to the evolving situation rather than to get directly involved. Russia cannot — and will not — save Iran in its confrontation with ******* and the ******* States,” he noted.

Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (R) welcomes Russian President Vladimir ****** (L) at Al Yamamah Palace in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia on December 06, 2023. 

Royal Court of Saudi Arabia | Anadolu | Getty Images

Moscow’s war in Ukraine means it has “no time” for another war, according to Smagin, who added that Russia would only be motivated to involve itself indirectly in the conflict with ******* if the end result were to weaken the U.S.

“Russia could seek to support Iran by

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 weapons to Iranian proxy forces, including Hezbollah and the Houthis,” Smagin said. “However, for the Kremlin, that would be more logical if such deliveries were going to harm the ******* States, rather than *******.”

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