Spaghetti models, possible impacts to Cuba, Florida

[Pelican Press 0]

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

Spaghetti models, possible impacts to Cuba, Florida

Here is the latest

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

.

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

is considered a Category 1 storm based on its sustained wind speed. As of the National Hurricane Center’s 8 a.m. EDT advisory, a west-southwestward or westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on Monday and Tuesday.

Cone of uncertainty:  

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

Satellite images:  

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

According to the National Hurricane Center, the storm’s center was located 115 miles east-northeast of Guantanamo as of 8 a.m. EDT Sunday.

The latest NHC advisory says Oscar is moving toward the west-southwest near 12 mph.

On the forecast track, the center of Oscar will move across Great Inagua this morning, make landfall along the northeastern coast of Cuba later this afternoon or evening, and then move across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday.

Oscar will then accelerate northeastward across the central Bahamas on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 80 mph with higher gusts.

Hurricane Oscar path: expected impacts on Bahamas; Cuba

The advisory warns of the following dangers:

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across portions of the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas, particularly Great Inagua Island, through this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba late this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba this afternoon into Monday. Tropical storm conditions will diminish across the Turks and Caicos Islands this morning.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 6 inches.For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf .

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas, where water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet above normal tide levels. Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Where is Hurricane Oscar? Latest path, track

Here are the latest details on Oscar, according to the NHC’s 8 a.m. EDT advisory.

Location: 115 miles east-northeast of Guantanamo, Cuba

Maximum sustained winds: 80 mph

Movement: West at 12 mph

Oscar’s estimated minimum central pressure is 986 millibars.

Anything greater than 979 MB is one indicator a storm could cause minimal damage. According to the NHC, the minimum central pressure of a storm is not necessarily a hazard, but it could indicate whether a storm will intensify in the future. Strengthening usually follows a drop in pressure, and a weakening usually follows an increase in pressure.

What does the cone of uncertainty represent?data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==

The cone of uncertainty, posted by the NHC, shows some possible paths of the storm’s center. As you monitor the forecast, keep in mind that the impact of Oscar may be felt well outside the cone – and that storm tracks go outside of the cone about a third of the time.

Watches, warnings

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for… * Southeastern Bahamas * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for… * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las TunasA Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * Turks and Caicos Islands * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * North coast of the Cuban Province of CamagueyA Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. Tropical storm watches could be required for this area later today.For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Spaghetti models: Track Oscar here

This auto-updated graphic shows how various spaghetti models are tracking Hurricane Oscar:

If the storm tracker is not loading,

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

.

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.

Helpful hurricane resources and links

(This story has been updated to add new information.)

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post:

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

#Spaghetti #models #impacts #Cuba #Florida

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up