See latest updates, spaghetti models, possible impacts

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See latest updates, spaghetti models, possible impacts

Here is the latest

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Oscar is considered a Category 1 storm based on its sustained wind speed. As of the National Hurricane Center’s 5 a.m. EDT advisory, a west-southwestward or westward motion at a slower forward speed is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on Monday and Tuesday.

Cone of uncertainty:  

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Satellite images:  

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According to USA TODAY Network data, the storm’s center was located 830 miles southeast of Jacksonville as of 5 a.m. EDT.

The latest NHC advisory says Oscar is moving toward the west near 12 mph.

On the forecast track, the center of Oscar will move across Great Inagua this morning, make landfall along the northeastern coast of Cuba later this afternoon or evening, and then move across eastern Cuba tonight and Monday.

Oscar will then accelerate northeastward across the central Bahamas on Tuesday.Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 80 mph with higher gusts.

Expected impacts from Hurricane Oscar

The advisory warns of the following dangers:

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue across portions of the warning area in the southeastern Bahamas, particularly Great Inagua Island, through this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba late this afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and possible in the watch area of Cuba this afternoon into Monday. Tropical storm conditions will diminish across the Turks and Caicos Islands this morning.

RAINFALL: Through Tuesday, rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with isolated amounts of 15 inches are expected across eastern Cuba. Across the southeastern Bahamas, 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated amounts around 6 inches.For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Oscar, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf .

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Great Inagua Island in the southeastern Bahamas, where water levels are expected to be between 2 and 4 feet above normal tide levels. Water levels of 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected along the north shore of Cuba in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Where is Hurricane Oscar?

Here are the latest details on Oscar, according to the NHC’s 5 a.m. EDT advisory.

Oscar’s estimated minimum central pressure is 988 millibars.

Anything greater than 979 MB is one indicator a storm could cause minimal damage. According to the NHC, the minimum central pressure of a storm is not necessarily a hazard, but it could indicate whether a storm will intensify in the future. Strengthening usually follows a drop in pressure, and a weakening usually follows an increase in pressure.

What does the cone of uncertainty represent?data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==

The cone of uncertainty, posted by the NHC, shows some possible paths of the storm’s center. As you monitor the forecast, keep in mind that the impact of Oscar may be felt well outside the cone – and that storm tracks go outside of the cone about a third of the time.

Watches, warnings

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has changed the Hurricane Warning for the Turks and Caicos Islands to a Tropical Storm Warning.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:A Hurricane Warning is in effect for… * Southeastern Bahamas * North coast of the Cuban Provinces of Holguin and Guantanamo to Punta MaisiA Hurricane Watch is in effect for… * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las TunasA Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * Turks and Caicos Islands * South coast of Cuban Province of Guantanamo * North coast of the Cuban Province of Las TunasA Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * North coast of the Cuban Province of CamagueyA Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.Interests in the central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Oscar. Tropical storm watches could be required for this area later today.For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

Spaghetti models: Track Oscar here

This auto-updated graphic shows how various spaghetti models are tracking Hurricane Oscar:

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Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.

Helpful hurricane resources and links

Get your home ready: Here is how to prepare your home for a hurricane, from well in advance to just before a storm\’s arrival

Need to prepare for a hurricane? Here is what you should have in a disaster supply kit

Hurricane preparedness list: If a storm is coming, here is what you need to do now

Video: Helpful tips for a hurricane survival kit

Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones: What\’s an invest and why do they keep saying tropical cyclone?

Officials encourage residents to assemble a hurricane kit early, storing enough supplies to last at least three days. Doing so ensures there are adequate supplies available on store shelves and prevents a rush – and shortages – that regularly occur when a storm is imminent.

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union:

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