Harris says violent crime is down. Trump says it’s up. Here’s a fact check.

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Harris says violent ****** is down. Trump says it’s up. Here’s a fact check.

On the campaign trail, former President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that violent ****** has “

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” since 2020. Vice President Kamala Harris has

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that violent ****** has declined to a “near 50-year low.”

Both candidates are citing different federal statistics that measure violent ******; Trump cites a Justice Department survey, while Harris cites FBI data on ******* reported by police departments. 

****** researchers tell CBS News that while both are valuable metrics, the FBI data Harris cites is more reliable, and she is correct that it suggests violent ****** is at a near 50-year low. However, both Trump and Harris overlook the significant impact of COVID-19 when comparing current ****** rates to 2020, researchers say.

Breaking down Trump’s claim that ****** has “skyrocketed”

Central to Trump’s claim that ****** has “skyrocketed” is a federal survey which estimates national ****** rates by asking a sample of people whether they experienced a ****** in the last six months. 

In a recent

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on social media, Trump said, “Compared to 2020, violent ****** is up nearly 40 percent.” That figure aligns with estimates from the latest

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, known as the NCVS, by the Department of Justice, which found that the rate of violent ****** offenses — defined as *****, robbery and aggravated ********, but not including ********* —

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about 37% higher in 2023 than in 2020. 

****** researchers say the survey findings are valuable because they can capture some instances of ******* that often go unreported to police. But the survey’s violent ****** estimates exclude murders and are limited by a margin of error, according to Jeff Asher, a ****** data analyst and co-founder of AH Datalytics.

“The 2023 NCVS showed violent ****** likely fell slightly from 2022 levels and was not statistically different from where it was in 2019. Comparing one favorable year of NCVS to a less favorable year is simply cherry-picking the data source without considering the overall trend and without acknowledging a potentially large margin of error,” Asher said. 

What research shows about violent ****** under Biden-Harris

Experts more commonly refer to the

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, which tracks ******* reported to police by participating law enforcement agencies. According to that

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, the rate of violent ******* — defined as *****, robbery, aggravated ******** and ********* — was around 6% lower in 2023 than in 2020. 

Harris’ claim that violent ****** dropped to a “near 50-year low” is accurate, according to

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by Asher. The 2023 violent ****** rate is just slightly above the rates reported in 2014 and 2021, which are the lowest reported since 1970.

“It’s an accurate statement based on the FBI data, though I prefer to say ‘reported violent ****** is at or near a 50-year low’ for precise accuracy given that not every violent ****** is reported to the police,” Asher said. 

The FBI’s figures are estimates, and participation by police agencies is voluntary, but the FBI said more than 16,000 law enforcement agencies (out of

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nationwide) provided data for 2023.

Other research corroborates these trends. For example, the Major Cities Chiefs Association

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a 9.1% decrease in murders from 2020 to 2023 in 70 large U.S. cities. 

AH Datalytics found total violent ****** reports

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in 2023 compared to 2020 and that they have continued to decline in 2024. 

What research shows about violent ****** under Trump

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shows that violent ****** rates fell annually during Trump’s first three years in office, but spiked in 2020. Researchers continue to study the causes of the spike, but have pointed to a number of potential factors including the economic and mental strain of the pandemic,

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in **** sales, and protests following the ******* of George Floyd in police custody. However, they

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on how the protests may have contributed to the increase.

Amid widespread lockdowns, some opportunity-based ******* like robbery dropped while ******* like homicides increased, according to Jillian Turanovic, an associate professor of sociology at the University of Colorado Boulder. She cautioned that using 2020 as a baseline for ****** comparisons is misleading. 

“It’s crucial to consider longer time horizons, especially when analyzing data from periods of significant societal disruption like the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Turanovic.

Data shows violent ****** rates generally declining since 1990s

Despite the discrepancies between ****** surveys and reported ****** rates in recent years, Turanovic says both the NCVS and FBI data show similar long-term trends.

“Both tell us that the nation’s violent ****** rate is substantially lower than it was in the 1990s, that violent ****** rates, based on most recent data, are largely on par with where they have been over the past decade, and that there is no evidence that violent ****** rates are ‘soaring,'” Turnovic said. 

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Laura Doan

Laura Doan is a fact checker for CBS News Confirmed. She covers misinformation, AI and social media.

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#Harris #violent #****** #Trump #Heres #fact #check

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