Israel’s strikes are shifting the power balance in the Middle East, with US support

[Pelican Press 0]

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*******’s strikes are shifting the power balance in the Middle East, with US support

WASHINGTON (AP) — ******** military strikes are

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across a nearly 2,000-mile stretch of the Middle East and threatening Iran itself. The efforts raise the possibility of an end to two decades of Iranian ascendancy in the region, to which

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inadvertently gave rise.

In Washington, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, and ***** capitals, opponents and supporters of *******’s offensive are offering clashing ideas about what the U.S. should do next, as its ally racks up tactical

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and the Houthis in Yemen and presses its

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in Gaza.

******* should get all the support it needs from the ******* States until Iran’s government “follows other dictatorships of the past into the dustbin of history,” said Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at Washington’s *************-leaning Foundation for the Defense of Democracies — calls echoed by some ******** political figures.

Going further, Yoel Guzansky, a former senior staffer at *******’s National Security Council, called for the Biden administration to join ******* in direct attacks in Iran. That would send “the right message to the Iranians — ‘Don’t mess with us,’” Guzansky said.

Critics, however, highlight lessons from the U.S. military campaign in Iraq and

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, when President George W. Bush ignored ***** warnings that the Iraqi dictator was the region’s indispensable counterbalance to Iranian influence. They caution against racking up military victories without adequately considering the risks, end goals or plans for

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, and warn of unintended consequences.

Ultimately, ******* “will be in a situation where it can only protect itself by perpetual war,” said Vali Nasr, who was an adviser to the Obama administration. Now a professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, or SAIS, he has been one of the leading documenters of the rise of Iranian regional influence since the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

With ******** Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu giving

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for restraint, the ******* States and its partners in the Middle East are “at the mercy of how far Bibi Netanyahu will push it,” Nasr said, referring to the ******** leader by his nickname.

“It’s as if we hadn’t learned the lessons, or the folly, of that experiment … in Iraq in 2003 about reshaping the Middle East order,” said Randa Slim, a fellow at SAIS and researcher at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.

Advocates of *******’s campaign hope for the

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that ******* the U.S., ******* and their partners, oppress civil society and increasingly are

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and other Western adversaries.

Opponents warn that military action without resolving the grievances of Palestinians and others risks endless and destabilizing

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, insurgency and extremist *********, and Middle East governments growing more repressive to try to control the situation.

And there’s the

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to try to ensure its survival. Before the ******** strikes on Hezbollah, Iranian leaders concerned about *******’s offensives had made clear that they were interested in returning to negotiations with the U.S. on their nuclear program and claimed interest in improved relations overall.

In just weeks, ******** airstrikes and intelligence operations have

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, ranks and arsenals of Lebanon-based Hezbollah — which had been one of the Middle East’s most powerful fighting forces and Iran’s overseas bulwark against attacks on Iranian territory — and hit oil infrastructure of

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.

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appears to have reduced the leadership of Iranian-allied ****** to a few survivors hiding in underground tunnels. However, ******** forces again engaged in heavy fighting there this week, and ****** was able to ***** rockets at Tel Aviv in a surprising show of enduring strength on the Oct. 7 anniversary of the militant group’s ******* on *******, which started the war.

Anticipated ******** counterstrikes on Iran could accelerate regional shifts in power. The response would follow

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last week in retaliation for killings of Hezbollah and ****** leaders.

It also could escalate the risk of all-out regional war that U.S. President Joe Biden — and decades of previous administrations — worked to avert.

The expansion of ******** attacks since late last month has sidelined mediation by the U.S., Egypt and Qatar for

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in Gaza. U.S. leaders say ******* did not warn them before striking Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon but have

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.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, said in an interview with CBS’ “60 Minutes” aired Monday that the U.S. was dedicated to supplying ******* with the military aid needed to protect itself but would keep pushing to end the conflict.

“We’re not going to stop in terms of putting that pressure on ******* and in the region, including ***** leaders,” she said.

*******’s expanded strikes raise for many what is the tempting prospect of weakening Iran’s anti-Western, anti-******* alliance with like-minded armed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen to governments in Russia and

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.

Called the “Axis of Resistance,” Iran’s military alliances grew — regionally, then globally — after the U.S. invasion of Iraq removed Saddam, who had fought an eight-year war against Iran’s ambitious clerical regime.

Advocates of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, and overthrow of Saddam, said correctly that an Iraqi democracy would take hold.

But the unintended effects of the U.S. intervention were even *******, including the rise of Iran’s Axis of Resistance and new extremist groups, including

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.

“An emboldened and expansionist Iran appears to be the only victor” of the 2003 Iraq war, notes a U.S. Army review of lessons learned.

“Two decades ago, who could have seen a day when Iran was supporting Russia with arms? The reason is because of its increased influence” after the U.S. overthrow of Saddam, said Ihsan Alshimary, professor of political science at Baghdad University.

Even more than in 2003, global leaders are offering little clear idea on how the shifts in power that *******’s military is putting in motion will end — for Iran, *******, the Middle East at large, and the ******* States.

Iran and its allies are being weakened, said Goldberg, at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. So is U.S. influence as it appears to be dragged along by *******, Nasr said.

The conflict could end up hurting ******* if it bogs down in a ground war in Lebanon, for example, said Mehran Kamrava, a professor and Middle East expert at Georgetown University in Qatar.

After four decades of deep animosity between ******** and Iranian leaders, “the cold war between them has turned into a hot war. And this is significantly changing — is bound to change — the strategic landscape in the Middle East,” he said.

“We are certainly at the precipice of change,” Kamrava said. But “the direction and nature of that change is very hard to predict at this stage.”

___

AP reporters Julia Frankel in Jerusalem and Qassim Abdul-Zahra in Baghdad contributed.

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#Israels #strikes #shifting #power #balance #Middle #East #support

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