Missile barrage against Israel exposes Iran’s limitations: analysts

[Pelican Press 0]

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

Missile barrage against ******* exposes Iran’s limitations: analysts

Iran’s missile barrage at ******* this week was meant as a warning that the Islamic republic can hit ******** territory, but has instead exposed Iranian military limitations, analysts say.

In its second-ever direct ******* on *******, Iran launched some 200 missiles on Tuesday, with most of them — but not all — intercepted by ******** air defences with help from allies.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said the ******* was in retaliation for *******’s ******** of top Iranian and allied officials, including Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Tehran-backed militant group Hezbollah who was targeted in a massive air strike on Beirut last month.

A similar Iranian ******** in April saw barrages of missiles and drones launched at *******, also in response to deadly ******** attacks.

Analysts said the latest *******, despite being more substantial than the April one, was calibrated to boost Iran’s deterrence but avoid provoking a potentially destructive full-out war with *******.

And while the size of Iran’s ballistic arsenal is unknown, analysts said it risks being exhausted.

Farzan Sabet, senior research associate at the Global Governance Centre in Geneva, said that Iran’s stockpile of missiles that are “able to reach ******* is limited”.

Tehran likely has the capability to “inflict serious damage on *******” over a ******* of a few weeks or months, but not during a longer conflict, Sabet said.

– ‘Eroding deterrence’ –

The spate of high-profile killings were seen as massive intelligence failures for Tehran and its allies, compelling the Iranian leadership to respond in order “to maintain its credibility in the eyes of international and domestic audiences”, according to Sabet.

“However, I believe they also calibrated the ******* with the goal of not triggering a major ******** and US response — a very difficult needle to thread,” he said.

Independent military expert Eva Koulouriotis said that “the Iranian regime’s deterrence in the region has been eroding for some time”.

In April, Iran’s first direct ******* on ******* “did not restore Iranian deterrence, but rather deepened its collapse”, she said.

With Nasrallah’s ************** and the late July ******** in Tehran of ****** chief Ismail Haniyeh, ******* appeared to restore its deterrence “which suffered a severe ***** on October 7”, Koulouriotis said.

That day, Haniyeh’s Iran-backed ************ militant group launched its unprecedented ******* on *******, severely denting the reputation of ******** intelligence and triggering the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip.

Iran’s ability to arm its network of allied groups such as ******, Hezbollah and the Huthi rebels in Yemen, as well as Russia in its war against Ukraine, shows the capacity of its military industry.

But with no publicly available figures about Iran’s stockpiles, Sabet said there are crucial questions about its launch capacity and replenishment rate.

“At what rate is its launch capacity and stockpile likely to be reduced over time by ****** counterattacks?” he said.

– Race for influence –

French Iran expert Bernard Hourcade said that despite the international focus on Tehran’s controversial nuclear programme, “missiles have been the top priority of the entire Iranian military apparatus and the state.”

He said that Iran’s deterrence had been based on the existence around ******** territory of ****** and Hezbollah — both deeply damaged by the current conflict — as well as missiles, which for a second time caused relatively little damage to its regional foe.

“These three weapons have disappeared,” said Hourcade.

“It’s over, they are no longer credible.”

Just hours before the latest *******, a senior White House official briefing reporters said Washington had “indications” that it was “imminent”.

Iran has denied claims it had warned the ******* States through a third party, a move that could have helped reduce the actual damage and limit the international backlash while allowing Tehran to boast of retaliation against *******.

“I think there was a kind of ‘gentleman’s agreement’ within the Iranian government to say: ‘Okay, we’ll respond but in a way that’s not excessive’,” said Hourcade.

Broader geopolitical calculations may have come into play, possibly keeping the door open to reviving the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers to win sanctions relief in the hope of rescuing Iran’s ailing economy.

According to Koulouriotis, “the equation in the Middle East today is that the restoration of ******** deterrence… will be achieved by breaking Iranian deterrence in the region.”

“The winner in this race will draw the map of influence in the Middle East for the coming decades.”

mra-dla-sjw/as/ami

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

#Missile #barrage #******* #exposes #Irans #limitations #analysts

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up