Israel eyes top level targets

[Pelican Press 0]

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******* eyes top level targets

After the ******** of Hezbollah’s leader in Lebanon, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu boasted ******* had “settled the score”. But the legacy of *******’s past targeted killings calls into question how much will actually change.

Far from bringing respite to Israelis, Hassan Nasrallah’s ****** led to an Iranian missile ******* on *******, as Tehran sought to avenge its protege in Lebanon and an Iranian general ******* alongside him.

******* has vowed to retaliate, with analysts saying it is only a matter of time.

Hezbollah, created in 1982 with Iranian help after *******’s invasion of Lebanon, has taken a major hit from ******** attacks that have ******* Nasrallah and much of his top brass.

Yet past ******** operations show the possible limits of this strategy.

When ******* ******* Nasrallah’s predecessor, Abbas al-Musawi, in 1992, it did not weaken Hezbollah.

Nasrallah, then 32, replaced him and eventually became, in Netanyahu’s words, “not just another **********” but “the **********”.

******* was also linked to the 2008 ******** of top Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh in a Damascus car ********.

That ********, however, “didn’t make Hezbollah’s military operations necessarily weaker”, said David Wood, senior analyst for the International Crisis Group.

“It didn’t make it ******* to recruit people to join Hezbollah. If anything, Hezbollah continued to develop its military programme.”

This time, *******’s strikes may prove more consequential, since they “decimated” Hezbollah’s senior military leadership, said Wood, calling it “an unprecedented challenge” for the group.

– ‘Wrath of ****’ –

*******’s policy of targeted killings began after the 1972 Munich Olympic Games, where ************ gunmen from the ****** September group ******* 11 Israelis.

In response, ******* launched “Wrath of ****”, an operation targeting leaders of ****** September and the Palestine Liberation Organization.

This strategy evolved, with ******** hits on top Hezbollah and ****** operatives.

But there were also blunders, like the ******* 1997 attempt to poison ****** leader Khaled Meshaal in Amman, which soured *******-Jordan ties, just a few years after they had made peace.

******* was then forced to release ****** spiritual leader Ahmed Yassin in exchange for two ******** spies arrested by Jordan.

Since ******’s October 7 *******, ******* has carried out several high-profile killings, including ****** leader Ismail Haniyeh, Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, and now Nasrallah.

******* claimed responsiblity for Shukr’s ****** in south Beirut but has yet to confirm its role in Haniyeh’s ******** in Iran.

– ‘Massive degrading’ –

Netanyahu defended targeted killings days ago by quoting the Talmud, the central text of Judaism: “He who comes to ***** you, rise up and ***** him first.”

For years up until the October 7 *******, ******* had mostly held its breath as Hezbollah and ****** amassed formidable arsenals, said John Hannah of the ******* Institute for National Security of America.

October 7 changed that, after ************ gunmen stormed across the border and staged an unprecedented ******* on ******* that resulted in the deaths of 1,205 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on ******** official figures that include hostages ******* in captivity.

The latest attacks on Hezbollah show “the doctrines of pre-emption and prevention have returned with a vengeance to *******’s national security” strategy, said Hannah.

“******* is now engaged in a massive degrading of the military capabilities of both ****** and Hezbollah,” he added.

This week, *******’s military announced the launch of “limited” raids in south Lebanon against Hezbollah, which began ******* on northern ******* in support of ally ****** after the October 7 *******.

The announcement came after a week of deadly bombardment on Hezbollah strongholds around Lebanon.

******* says its shift in focus to securing its northern front aims to ensure the safe return of more than 60,000 Israelis displaced from the border by Hezbollah cross-border strikes in the past year.

Within *******, meanwhile, some have questioned whether Nasrallah’s ******** will help serve that purpose.

Yossi Melman, an intelligence commentator for the left-leaning ******** daily Haaretz, said Nasrallah’s ****** would only be a “game-changer” if it is followed by serious diplomatic efforts to end the fighting.

“Hezbollah, despite the heavy blows it has suffered, will keep targeting” northern *******, said Melman, author of a history of ******** espionage titled “Spies Against Armageddon”.

“And as long as the shelling continues the evacuees will not return.”

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