WTI rises on Iran attack against Israel

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WTI rises on Iran ******* against *******

U.S. crude oil prices rose more than 2% on Tuesday, coming off session highs as traders assessed whether a missile ******* by Iran against ******* would lead to further escalation in Middle East.

“There has been a lot of complacency about this war,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC’s “The Exchange.” Traders have largely dismissed the threat of oil supply disruptions from simmering tensions in the Middle East, she said.

The question now is whether ******* might target Iran’s nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure in response to the *******, Croft said. Iran is producing at a five-year high of over 3 million barrels per day, she said.

“We do need to think about a scenario where Iranian oil supplies are at risk,” Croft said.

Here are Tuesday’s closing energy prices:

West Texas Intermediate November contract: $69.83 per barrel, up $1.66, or 2.44%. Year to date, U.S. crude has fallen more than 2%.Brent December contract: $73.56 per barrel, up $1.86, or 2.59%. Year to date, the global benchmark has dropped more than 4%.RBOB Gasoline November contract: $1.9666 per gallon, up 1.63%. Year to date, gasoline has pulled more than 6%.Natural Gas November contract: $2.896 per thousand cubic feet, down 0.92%. Year to date, gas has gained more than 15%.

The ******* Defense Forces identified about 180 missiles fired from Iran toward *******. Most of the missiles were intercepted, though several hits have been identified, an ******** security official told NBC News.

The IDF is assessing the situation and is not currently aware of any casualties, said military spokesman Daniel Hagari.

“This ******* will have consequences,” Hagari said. A senior White House official told NBC News earlier that the U.S. would help defend ******* and warned Iran that an ******* would “carry severe consequences.”

Tensions in the Middle East have dramatically escalated over the past week, as ******* has pounded the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah with airstrikes, ******** the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah. ******* dispatched ground forces into southern Lebanon on Tuesday.

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Crude oil intraday

Focus on ******* response

Oil market and geopolitical analysts have repeatedly warned this year that an ******** incursion into Lebanon could be the trip wire that leads to a regional war with Iran, increasing the risk of crude supply disruptions.

The impact on the oil market will depend on the “scope and damage” caused by an Iranian *******, which in turn will drive *******’s response, said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy.

Iran and ******* came to blows in April but ultimately backed away from a full-blown conflict. Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles and drones against *******, after the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu struck an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria.

The U.S., ******* and other allies foiled Iran’s April missile *******, giving the Netanyahu government room for a small retaliatory strike in Iran that did not lead to a further cycle of escalation.

McNally said “the crude risk premium should quickly dissipate” if there is a repeat of “April’s ******* Iranian and restrained ******* exchanges.”

The analyst cautioned, however, that ******* has increasingly adopted a “three eyes for an eye” approach to attacks from regional enemies.

“If Iran attacks and causes damage, then the escalatory cycle could leg up quicker to sustain and even increase a geopolitical risk premium,” McNally said.

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