Israeli forces launch ground offensive in Lebanon as markets eye escalation

[Pelican Press 0]

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

******** forces launch ground offensive in Lebanon as markets eye escalation

NEBATIEH, LEBANON – SEPTEMBER 28: Smoke rises after ******** attacks over Shebaa town of Nabatieh province on September 28, 2024. (Photo by Ramiz Dallah/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images

******* has launched a ground incursion into Lebanese territory, with markets once more on edge over the conflict between the ******* state and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group.

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

, *******’s Defense Forces said they had begun “limited, localized and targeted ground raised” against targets in southern Lebanon that they say pose an “immediate threat to ******** communities in northern *******.” The ******** air and artillery forces are supporting the offensive, the IDF said.

The ground incursion marks a shift in the ******* state’s military attention away from the Gaza Strip, where it has been carrying out a retaliatory campaign in response to Oct. 7 ******* ******* carried out by ************ militant group ******.

******** troops deploy in an area in the Upper Galilee region in northern ******* on September 27, 2024. 

Jalaa Marey | Afp | Getty Images

Iran-backed Hezbollah and *******, meanwhile, have been trading cross-border ***** since last year, when the Lebanese group declared solidarity with the ************ cause.

The ******** offensive in Lebanon comes after the ******* state assassinated Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah on Sept. 27, rattling the group’s command structure, and follows a devastating ******** campaign that

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

has ******* more than 1,000 people in Lebanon and displaced 1 million people to date.

As recently as last week, Western allies were urging ******* to consider a 21-day cease-***** across the Lebanon-******* border.

In a

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

-translated

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

, ******** Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said he had spoken with his U.S. counterpart Lloyd Austin and stressed that *******’s latest operations “build on the ongoing measures taken to eliminate Hezbollah leadership and to degrade Hezbollah’s offensive capabilities.”

In comments carried by the Hezbollah-aligned Al Manar media outlet, the group’s officials denounced the ******** airstrikes and called on the ******* Nations for relief supplies. Hezbollah said that claims that ******* had entered Lebanon are “false,” reporting no “direct ground clashes,” according to a

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

-translated

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

.

Market impact

Conflict within Lebanon’s home territory compounds a debilitating financial crisis that has gripped the country since 2019, after the hemorrhage of dollar liquidity.

*******’s own economy, meanwhile, is showing the strain of multiple military campaigns. Its central bank is expected to hold interest rates — currently at 4.5% — unchanged until the second half of next year and trim its 2025 growth forecast as a result of the ongoing conflict, Reuters reported Bank of ******* Governor Amir Yaron as saying on Tuesday.

Globally, markets have so far weathered nearly a year of unyielding conflict in the oil-rich Middle East, after ******’ Oct. 7 ******* triggered *******’s military campaign in the Gaza Strip and retaliatory cross-border strikes from Lebanon, along with Yemeni Houthi attacks disrupting commercial transit through the Red Sea.

Historically sensitive to geopolitical tremors, oil prices have resisted long-term spikes, reined in by the specter of waning global demand and potential supply increases.

Brent crude futures with December expiry were trading around $73.10 per barrel at 2:50 p.m. London time on Tuesday, up 2.1% on the previous settlement. The front-month November WTI contract was 2.27% higher at $69.70 per barrel.

A woman reads the Koran in front of the rubble of buildings which were levelled on September 27 by ******** strikes that targeted and ******* Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in the Haret Hreik neighbourhood of Beirut’s southern suburbs, on September 29, 2024. 

– | Afp | Getty Images

“The strike by ******* in Lebanon that ******* Hezbollah’s leader represents a major escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and all eyes are now on the next actions by ******* and Iran. On its own, this escalation would point to higher oil prices and inflation. But it comes at a time when OPEC+ is shifting tack on policy towards higher production, limiting the upside risk to oil prices, inflation and hence interest rates,” Capital Economics analysts said in a note.

Questions linger as to whether the hostilities will draw in other states from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), including key regional U.S. ally Saudi Arabia, historically partisan to the ************ cause — but so far militarily uninvolved in ongoing Middle East conflict.   

data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==

“In our view, GCC ******** on the sideline and only provides humanitarian aid to Gaza and Lebanon. And it seems like Iran is still lacking the will and military capacity to respond and is not prepared to risk instability at home as it enters an uncertain leadership transition,” Jaap Meijer, head of research at Arqaam Capital, told CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Tuesday.

“We think, as we saw in the initial reaction on the 7^th of October attacks: the GCC [market] was initially sold off, but quickly recovered, as the market knows that the GCC will not be involved in this conflict between ******* and Iran,” he added.

However, ongoing ***** exchanges between ******* and Yemen — including fresh Houthi drone attacks against ******** military posts in Eilat and Tel Aviv,

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

— raise the risk of further maritime incidents in the Red Sea. Ambrey Intelligence had reported incidents against two vessels in the key transit area bridging Asia-Pacific and the Mediterranean by London midday on Tuesday.

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

#******** #forces #launch #ground #offensive #Lebanon #markets #eye #escalation

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up

This is the hidden content, please

• Sign In
• or
• Sign Up