Hasan Nasrallah is gone but the threat of Hezbollah remains

[Pelican Press 0]

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Hasan Nasrallah is gone but the threat of Hezbollah ********

No one should shed any tears over the ****** of Hasan Nasrallah, the longtime leader of Hezbollah, in an ******** airstrike Friday. He was a ********** kingpin with the deaths of countless innocents – including Israelis, Americans, Syrians and fellow Lebanese – on his hands. His demise was, as President Joe Biden said, “a measure of justice for his many victims.”

Hezbollah earned renown throughout the ******* world for waging an effective guerrilla campaign against ******** troops and eventually, in 2000, driving them out of Lebanon. In response to further Hezbollah attacks, ******** troops entered Lebanon again in 2006, only to have Hezbollah ****** them to a draw. Hezbollah won supporters for its “victories” over the “Zionist entity.” But it undercut its appeal to Sunnis by slaying numerous civilians as part of a scorched-earth campaign to keep the brutal, Iranian-backed Assad regime in power in Syria. Little wonder Nasrallah’s demise was celebrated by so many in both ******* and Syria, even as it was mourned by his Shiite followers in Lebanon and his sponsors in Tehran.

However, while Nasrallah’s ************** is amply justified on both moral and strategic grounds, it is unlikely to strike a decisive ***** against Hezbollah – an organization that is deeply embedded in the fabric of Lebanese society.

Nasrallah became Hezbollah’s leader in 1992 after the ************** of his predecessor and mentor, Abbas al-Musawi, also in an ******** airstrike. Israelis rejoiced at the ****** of Musawi, with some imagining Hezbollah might **** with him. Yet Nasrallah – then a young and obscure cleric – proved to be even more effective an empire builder than Musawi was, turning Hezbollah into arguably the most powerful non-state military force in the world. It is quite possible that Nasrallah’s successor – most likely, his look-alike cousin Hashem Safieddine – will prove equally adept.

Whoever he is, Nasrallah’s successor will have his work cut out for him. The group has suffered body blows from an escalating ******** campaign in the past two weeks.

Trying to force Hezbollah to stop rocketing its north – those attacks have driven more than 60,000 Israelis out of their homes – ******* unleashed the cunning covert ******* on Sept. 17 and 18 that blew up thousands of Hezbollah’s pagers and walkie-talkies. It followed that up with punishing airstrikes that have eliminated numerous top Hezbollah commanders, culminating in Nasrallah’s ******. The Lebanese Health Ministry estimates that more than 700 people have been ******* in ******** strikes in the past week. (It does not distinguish between combatants and noncombatants.)

The ****** toll is sure to climb after rescuers finish digging through the rubble of Nasrallah’s underground headquarters in southern Beirut. The ******** Air Force likely dropped 2,000-pound ****** to penetrate his bunker, in the process flattening six residential buildings overhead. That is a measure of ruthlessness that will earn ******* further condemnation around the world. But ******** leaders hope the strike will restore a measure of deterrence against its enemies that was lost after ******’s deadly ******* on ******* nearly a year ago.

Hezbollah must be especially concerned about the success that ******** intelligence has had in penetrating its most secret operations. ******* not only managed to supply the militia with ******-trapped electronic devices, it also tracked its senior leaders precisely enough to call in airstrikes to eliminate them. *******’s vaunted intelligence agencies – including Mossad, Aman (the military intelligence directorate) and Unit 8200 (the equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency) – had their reputations battered by their ******** to prevent ******’s Oct. 7 *******. They are restoring some of their luster now.

So now Hezbollah, while replacing its leaders and rebuilding its communications network, will also have to launch a hunt for traitors within its ranks. Thus, the ripple effects from *******’s strikes will continue to destabilize the ********** organization for months and even years to come.

Yet Hezbollah is far from defeated. Before the latest airstrikes, Hezbollah was estimated to field 150,000 to 200,000 rockets and missiles. The ******** air attacks have eliminated some of them, but most likely remain operational. Hezbollah also is estimated to have 40,000 to 50,000 fighters who are highly motivated and well trained.

******* hopes its air campaign will obviate the need for a ground ******* on Hezbollah. But, as I noted a few days ago, few nations have ever achieved their war objectives via air action alone: Air power is most effective when used in a combined arms offensive in conjunction with ground power. And Hezbollah will be all the more reluctant to stop its rocketing of northern ******* after the ****** of its leader; to do so now would be a virtual admission of defeat that would badly dent its aura of power. ******* may still find itself faced with the daunting necessity of sending troops back into Lebanon, where they are likely to be in for a brutal, inconclusive battle against a formidable adversary.

Nasrallah is gone, and good riddance to him. But Hezbollah ********. It is not only a powerful military force and a potent ********** organization but also a quasi-governmental agency throughout southern Lebanon that wins the loyalty of Shiites by providing Iranian-funded social services in place of Lebanon’s dysfunctional central government. It would be nice to think the Lebanese government could now disarm Hezbollah and end its reign of *******, but that is wishful thinking. ******* will still have to reckon with the Iranian-backed organization for years to come.

Hezbollah and *******, although mortal enemies, managed to live in a cold peace between the end of *******’s last incursion into Lebanon in 2006 and the ****** attacks on Oct. 7. They will have to somehow attain a new modus vivendi after the end of the current bloodletting – because neither side is in a position to eliminate the other.

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