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Tesla could have a tough time living up to the hype around its robotaxi event


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Tesla could have a tough time living up to the hype around its robotaxi event

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’s self-driving Waymo car runs its robotaxi service in the “real world” as it participates in California’s Autonomous Vehicle Passenger Service pilot program , Spak pointed out. Still, the bull case around Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions highlights the company’s potential to provide cost-effective technology. For instance, Tesla’s cheaper hardware, scalable software and a large base of existing owners gives the company an advantage if CEO Elon Musk’s vision of a hybrid autonomous vehicle fleet becomes successful, according to Bernstein’s Devnani. Specifically, the company’s plans to use a short-range camera-only sensor stack would help lower the price point to between $25,000 and $30,000 per car, implying “5-6x the supply potential for the same level of CapEx if Tesla can pull it off,” he said. Devnani, added, however, that his team is “cautious on Tesla’s odds of all-out winning in self-driving technology” as it has a more limited sensor stack compared to its competitors. (Uber, Waymo and Cruise use light detection and ranging, or LiDAR, technology in its self-driving cars.) Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney also expects Tesla’s cost structure on hardware to remain an advantage for the company, but he added that high-definition radar could be needed for a robotaxi in certain weather conditions. He rates the stock neutral and his price target of $230 suggests downside of more than 11%. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is a Tesla bull with an overweight rating and a $310 price target — reflecting 19% upside. However, even he seems to have some doubts as “We, ******” approaches. “We are, frankly, struggling to see how the day can live up to investors’ high expectations,” Jonas said. He said that details he’s looking for include data comparing the safety of Tesla’s autonomous vehicle technology to human driving. A wait-and-see tech story Tesla’s recent growth has been driven by its rapidly growing energy generation and storage segment, which hasn’t been enough to offset the slowdown in its auto business, CFRA’s Nelson noted. The company ******** the top EV seller in the ******* States by far, but its automotive revenue in the second quarter came in at $19.9 billion, a 7% drop from a year earlier, as it’s losing market share to several other rivals releasing their own EVs. For now, Nelson’s not convinced that the upcoming vehicle launch will be the game-changer are hoping for — and he thinks its a “misnomer” to call Musk’s next vehicle a true “robotaxi” unless it displays real robotic capabilities. “Investors should take a wait-and-see approach here, but expectations are very high,” Nelson said. “Our big issue with the with the story — and Tesla is a ‘story stock,’ it’s all about the next catalyst in the story — is that Tesla’s intermediate-term growth does not have a lot of transparency.” Morgan Stanley’s Jonas has an eye on the evolving relationship between Tesla and Musk’s new artificial intelligence startup xAI. Tesla plans to build a custom supercomputer named Dojo that processes and trains AI models using video and data from Tesla cars. In turn, this would be used to improve Tesla’s driver assistance features. “Tesla upside requires AI **********,” Jonas said in a recent note. “Tesla’s future valuation is highly dependent on its ability to develop, manufacture and commercialize autonomous technologies, ranging from transportation to humanoids.”



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#Tesla #tough #time #living #hype #robotaxi #event

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