A weakened Hezbollah is being goaded into all-out conflict with Israel – the consequences would be devastating for all

[Pelican Press 0]

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A weakened Hezbollah is being goaded into all-out conflict with ******* – the consequences would be devastating for all

For almost a year, ******* and Hezbollah have engaged in

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as onlookers warn that this escalating war of attrition could land the region in

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. The past few days have made that devastating scenario closer to a reality.

First came *******’s

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, an unprecedented ******** on Hezbollah’s communications that injured thousands of the organization’s operatives. It was followed by

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, a key Hezbollah leader, who ***** in an airstrike that also ******* other senior commanders of the militant group, as well as some civilians. Hezbollah has responded by

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of its rockets fired at *******, targeting both military facilities and civilian neighborhoods just north and east of Haifa.

As a

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, I have followed the dynamics of this war of attrition since Oct. 8, 2023, the day after ****** ********* an unprecedented and deadly ******* on *******, which responded by bombarding the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah then began ******* rockets into northern ******* in solidarity with ****** in Gaza.

Despite the high rhetoric and

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, until recent days neither ******* nor Hezbollah, nor the latter’s sponsor Iran, have shown an interest in a full-scale war. All parties surely know the likely destructive consequences of such an eventuality for themselves: ******* has the military power to devastate Beirut and other parts of Lebanon as it did in Gaza, while even a weakened Hezbollah could ***** thousands of missiles at ******** strategic sites, from the airport to central Tel Aviv, water supply lines and electricity hubs, and offshore gas rigs.

So instead, they have exchanged ***** and blows along their shared boundary, with somewhat agreed-upon red lines concerning the geographical scope of attacks and efforts not to intentionally target civilians.

But *******’s recent attacks in Lebanon may have turned the page of this war of attrition into a new and far more acute situation, putting the region on the brink of a full war. Such a war would wreak havoc in Lebanon and *******, and might also

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into direct confrontation. In doing so, it would also

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of the ****** gunmen who

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on Oct. 7 in the hope that a heavy-handed ******** response would draw in more groups across the region.

A dangerous ‘new phase’

Hezbollah’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, has insisted throughout the near-yearlong hostilities that his organization would hold its ***** only if a cease-***** agreement is reached between ******* and ******. In recent weeks, however, ******* has taken the conflict in the opposite direction.

The country’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant,

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on Hezbolah targets as a “new phase,” adding that the “center of gravity” in the war was moving north into Lebanon. The ******** government has added the “return of the residents of the north securely to their homes” as

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.

The ******** on Hezbollah’s communications system targeted the organization’s operatives but

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, leaving Lebanese in shock, trauma, anger and desperation.

It demonstrated *******’s tactical military advantage over Hezbollah. The unprecedented ************ into the heart of the organization’s command and rank-and-file structures has never been seen before in any conflict or war globally. It struck Hezbollah in its most vulnerable places and even exposed its coordination with Iran – one of the injured persons from the pager explosions

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in Lebanon.

The

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two days later was another signal that the ******** government had now decided to try to change the rules of this risky game of reprisals and counter-reprisals. It is clear that rather than the uneasy status quo that defined this war of attrition for nearly a year, *******’s intent is now to pressure Hezbollah to concede.

data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==Getting out of control

Nasrallah delivered a

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in the aftermath of the pager *******. While acknowledging that Hezbollah was severely undermined by this operation, he defined the ******** ******* as a continuation of “multiple other massacres perpetrated by the ****** over decades.”

By doing so, he framed it within a popular historical narrative among many Lebanese and Palestinians who

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that regularly carries out massacres against innocent civilians.

Nasrallah also insisted that his commitment to supporting ****** in Gaza ******** unwavering.

While stating that ******** actions have “

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” and could amount to a declaration of war, Nasrallah also reiterated a point he had made in previous peaks of this ongoing conflict: that retribution is coming, the only question being of timing and scale. By doing so, Nasrallah hinted that he may still not be interested in a full war.

*******, on the other hand, appears less circumspect. After almost a full year of contained tension with Hezbollah, *******’s leaders appear willing to risk an escalation that might get out of control.

It is hard to determine what the strategy behind *******’s actions is: Since Oct. 7; as the

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, ******* has not displayed a coherent strategy with clear political goals.

Rather, critics of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu suggest that he is mainly motivated by his own political survival and the

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as the head of state, tying *******’s interests to his own.

Uniting the ‘axis of resistance’

So where does this leave Nasrallah as he weighs Hezbollah’s response, surely in consultation with Iran? After such devastating blows to Nasrallah’s organization, it is hard to think that Hezbollah would be willing to scale down, stop its cross-border attacks and retreat away from the ******** border, or give up its commitment to support ****** in Gaza.

data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==************ refugees listen to a speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah from a cafe at the entrance of the Sabra camp in Beirut.

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On the other hand, opting for a full-scale war, after spending a year avoiding it, is fraught with risk – both Nasrallah and his sponsors in Tehran know well the high costs of such a war for Hezbollah, Lebanon and potentially also for Iran.

If Hezbollah went to war now against *******, it would embark on its most consequential move since its

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. But it would do so with crippled communications systems and without much of its leadership – some of whom had worked for decades side by side with Nasrallah, building with him the military capacity of the organization.

In some respects, Israelis under Netanyahu’s leadership, and Lebanese in a country increasingly held ******** by Hezbollah’s interests, face similar predicaments: Their well-being is being sacrificed for other priorities.

Netanayhu’s

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about concern for ******** citizens in the north sound hollow after 11 months of pursuing policies that put them more in danger, as well as

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that would also end hostilities between Hezbollah and *******.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah has dragged the country into this war

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– a decision that has led to significant devastation in parts of a country already suffering extreme political and economic duress.

Nasrallah’s speech described Hezbollah’s predicament as that of all Lebanon – while sending a veiled threat that dissent would not be tolerated. Many Lebanese are undoubtedly sympathetic to the ************ cause and resent *******’s war in Gaza. But at the same time, they may balk at the idea that their own well-being has to be sacrificed in the process.

In the meantime, Yahya Sinwar, the

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behind the Oct. 7 massacre, may well be looking on at the unfolding events between ******* and Hezbollah with satisfaction. His plan was designed to trigger the unification of all fronts of the so-called “axis of resistance,” which includes the Houthis in Yemen as well as Hezbollah and other Iran-backed groups with the hope for a regional war against *******.

A year later, we are closer than ever to that scenario.

This article is republished from

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, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by:

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,

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Read more:

Asher Kaufman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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#weakened #Hezbollah #goaded #allout #conflict #******* #consequences #devastating

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