For China, Africa’s allure grows amid feuds with West. But do risks outweigh its promise?

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For China, *******’s allure grows amid feuds with West. But do risks outweigh its promise?

When ******** President Xi Jinping opened the

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on Thursday, he called on the continent to join China in leading the modernisation of the Global South, which he said has suffered “injustice” at the hands of the West.

At this week’s

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in Beijing, attended by more than 50 ******** leaders, China once again pushed for its own development initiatives as an alternative to Western ones.

In a ****** action plan, China called for strengthened cooperation on supply chains and green technology as it continues to navigate tech and trade restrictions put in place by the US, ********* Union and allies.

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Observers said *******’s strategic importance to China is growing, but Beijing is also carefully weighing the opportunities and risks as it deepens engagement on the volatile continent.

***** Xiaoyang, a Tsinghua University professor specialising in ******** studies, said the continent offered great political and economic support for China amid

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“If the developed countries in the world want to decouple [from China], then we, as the fastest-growing regions in the

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, can strengthen our relations with each other,” said *****, who is also a China Forum expert, adding that this could serve as a model for future cooperation mechanisms.

As tensions grow with the West, China has thrown its support behind mechanisms led by developing countries, such as FOCAC and

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******** President Xi Jinping (left) arrives with Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye for the FOCAC summit opening ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Thursday. Photo: AP alt=******** President Xi Jinping (left) arrives with Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye for the FOCAC summit opening ceremony at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on Thursday. Photo: AP>

******* is home to the world’s youngest population, offering a growing market for ******** goods and potential for ******** companies that want to set up overseas manufacturing facilities.

The continent also has an abundance of critical minerals used in semiconductor and battery manufacturing, giving it strategic importance as Beijing spars with Washington and Brussels over

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However, ***** noted that *******’s strategic and economic importance to China is “far more than just minerals and resources”.

“China hopes that ******* can develop and industrialise, so that it can provide China with better supporting facilities in the industrial chain, and then provide an investment market and become a strong trading partner,” he said.

“This can provide an all-round economic benefit, which is also our medium- and long-term strategy.”

China is the continent’s biggest trading partner, and most ******** nations have joined the

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– Beijing’s flagship global development scheme, which has seen over US$700 billion in deals signed since its inception in 2013. These projects include construction or upgrades to more than 100,000km (62,137 miles) of roads and railways and hundreds of ports, ******** government data showed.

But the belt and road’s expansion on the continent has often been dogged by accusations – denied by Beijing – that it is a “debt-trap”, as ******** nations have struggled to repay loans from China to fund these projects.

Most of the continent’s debt is to multilateral and private lenders, but China is its biggest bilateral creditor. Beijing lent over US$125 billion to ******* from 2013 to 2023, according to data from Boston University’s Global Development Policy Centre.

Beijing has started to help with loan restructuring for some ******** nations, including a landmark deal with Zambia last year.

Under the action plan announced at the FOCAC summit, China will cancel intergovernmental interest-free loans due by the end of 2024 for least developed countries (LDCs) in ******* that have diplomatic relations with Beijing.

According to the Boston University data, China’s lending to ******* shrunk during the Covid-19 pandemic as Beijing’s overseas investment dropped to cope with the economic hangover.

Xi’s speech at the FOCAC summit also mentioned

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belt and road projects, a phrase previously used to describe less costly initiatives aimed at improving livelihood, prompting questions over whether China is shifting from big-spending infrastructure projects to more financially sustainable ones.

Following several years of decline, construction of and investment in belt and road projects in ******* rebounded in 2023. This was particularly true in metals and mining, though infrastructure investments and projects saw a drop of over 30 per cent, according to data from Fudan University’s Green Finance and Development Centre.

***** said the “debt-trap” accusations and political and financial instability in ******* had disrupted China’s economic cooperation with the continent.

“Political pressures sometimes affect some normal market judgments. For example, if you accuse China of creating a debt crisis or a debt trap, China may also be cautious in financing some apparently normal infrastructure projects that are urgently needed in *******,” he said.

“Financing in ******* has also become very difficult and expensive because of the current economic cycle. In the past few years, the inflow of capital into the ******** economy has been relatively small,” ***** said.

“China is also very cautious and will no longer make large-scale lending. So the original large-scale infrastructure construction may also be shrinking, relatively speaking.”

Seifudein Adem, a visiting professor at Japan’s Doshisha University specialising in China-******* relations, said China is trying to minimise the “risks” in its economic engagement with *******.

“Unfortunately, there will be political instability in many places in ******* for a long time to come,” he said.

“A degree of risk is always there in doing business anywhere. In some places, like *******, the risk is of course higher. But China will be better off by continuing its economic engagement with ******* than by totally becoming risk-averse and disengaging.”

Cobus van Staden, a senior researcher at the South ******** Institute of International Affairs and managing director of the China-Global South Project, said ******* is also strategically important for China’s military.

China opened its first overseas military base in Djibouti in 2017 and is reportedly looking to install a second one in West *******, prompting concerns from Western powers who ***** it could strengthen Beijing’s foothold on the continent.

Beijing has deployed thousands of peacekeeping personnel to the continent. They have taken part in missions in South Sudan and Mali, with over a dozen ******** soldiers ******* over the years. Hundreds of ******** peacekeepers have recently left the Democratic Republic of the Congo as armed conflict has escalated in the country.

Van Staden said China’s relative lack of overseas security experience and domestic backlash over the deaths of ******** soldiers ******* in peacekeeping missions had created barriers for China’s security engagement on the continent.

“I think China feels more comfortable in security cooperation via overarching bodies like the [******** Union], and isn’t interested in replacing other security providers like the US.”

Adem, however, said China could seek to increase its military presence in *******, and it would probably be welcomed.

“The global geopolitical climate is conducive for this. Therefore, it will not be surprising if China begins to forge quasi-military alliances with select ******** countries sooner rather than later,” he said.

In his summit speech, Xi offered 1 billion yuan (US$140.5 million) in military aid to ******* as well as training for 6,000 military personnel and 1,000 police officers. He also said China was willing to conduct more ****** military drills and patrols.

Beijing will support ******** nations in solving internal conflicts in their own way, but will help to mediate if requested, according to the action plan.

Van Staden said China’s involvement in mediation has been “relatively limited”.

“China’s non-interference policy limits more direct involvement … China has done some mediation, but it was somewhat piecemeal. I’m not sure that China is interested in expanding its role in ******** mediation at present.”

He Wenping, a professor at the ******** Academy of Social Sciences’ Institute of West-****** and ******** Studies, said China has been committed to peacemaking through diplomacy including installing a special envoy for the ***** of ******* and holding peace conferences, as well as post-conflict reconstruction.

“China is still very willing to continue to be a link for peace,” she said. “And without economic development, peace will also be fragile.”

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#China #Africas #allure #grows #feuds #West #risks #outweigh #promise

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