Stagflation Fears Resurface Ahead of a Key Month for Markets

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Stagflation Fears Resurface Ahead of a Key Month for Markets

Each week (sometimes more often) I write notes for the various producers in the media.

For this long weekend, I am offering them to you as food for thought.data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==

In the overall macro theme, I am sticking to this for the time being:

Stagflation -The Fed can’t fix it with a huge reduction in rates, which will spike inflation and with a small reduction in rates, it will not do much to help the economy grow.

The latest round of economic stats is mixed.

GDP 3% PCE 2.6% but housing starts were far worse and at this point, the jobs numbers look flat.

And of course, the big news last week was the NVIDIA (NASDAQ:) earnings.

1. NVDA -The CEO says best ROI out there as far as computing infrastructure yet even with the beat, the beats are getting smaller-Q1 was 6% and Q2 4.5%. Blackwell is the new anticipation for Q4. NVDA is buying back OVER 50 BILLION OF THEIR STOCK-so now? Like the hold at 118-want to see NVDA clear 130 and then the recent highs-otherwise, expect some chop. Overall, it’s the consumer that needs to buy into GEN AI.

2. The current P/E Ratio for NVDA is 58.9, while the benchmark is 27.6. This represents a 113% premium versus the benchmark P/E Ratio. The current P/E for NVDA is lower than both the 3-year and 5-year averages.

• 87 a share many say is fair value which right now it is 35% overvalued at 118

The weekly charts are featured above for the Economic Modern Family

The most interesting is Granny . After strong consumer confidence, the ETF looks like a move over July highs should be followed. However, is underperforming and must also recent highs around 189. Hence, this is the key area right now and if rallies, small caps, transportation will follow. That will be the best indicator for a soft landing or not. All semiconductors have to do is hold and not fall.

Speaking of the consumer-the vanity trade sleeps still but is now reducing costs of Wegovy. This is the place to be as 2024 ends and 2025 begins, all things beauty, makeup, skincare, athletic wear. All these areas of the market are beat up could come alive-my guess the move begins in February 2025

And along with LLY and Novo Nordisk (NYSE:), the Biotech space also looks hot. thru 150 is a solid breakout. We anticipate that lots of stocks in that space will follow.data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///ywAAAAAAQABAAACAUwAOw==

On the inflation front, the picture is even more nuanced. While so many stats support inflation over, the cost of living ******** elevated.

How will we know when inflation (or if) picks up?

3. Commodities-the TRIFECTA to watch

• to -has to outperform-not yet
• -has to clear $80 a barrel-not yet
• -has to clear 21 cents a pound-not yet
• But in all the not yets-their prices are holding firm so worth watching

4. Housing prices high, bottomed, Lumber (WOOD basing) with new home sales down.

Where besides the consumer do I see tech growing? As I wrote this past week, we are very interested in alternative energy and EVs:

5. Exxon says renewables will grow fastest, but all energy is needed to fuel the world-still very bullish EVs (Rivian (NASDAQ:)) and solar () ()-waiting a bit longer to buy)

I leave you with a few more stocks to look at:

Picks

Mosaic-MOS-basing with potential

Novo-Nordisk NVO Diet Drugs

Blockchain-BLOK-long term hold

RIVIAN-RIVN Will look to add over 15

Teekay (NYSE:) TK-********* company ships crude oil

SL Green- real estate

ETF Summary

(Pivotal means short-term bullish above that level and bearish below)

• S&P 500 (SPY) 560 pivotal
• Russell 2000 (IWM) 217-227 current range
• Dow (DIA) 410 support
• Nasdaq (QQQ) 475 area pivotal
• Regional banks (KRE) 57 pivotal
• Semiconductors (SMH) 240 important support
• Transportation (IYT) Big week as this turned up and over the July calendar range-much better looking
• Biotechnology (IBB) 145-150 new range
• Retail (XRT) 75 support 80 resistance
• iShares iBoxx Hi Yd Cor Bond ETF (HYG) Back to 2022 levels and resistance-but still strong and risk on unless it breaks 78

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