Stock Markets: Soft landing in sight?

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Stock Markets: Soft landing in sight?

People wait in line outside Macy’s before opening on “****** Friday” in New York City on November 24, 2023. The retail sector’s efforts to entice holiday gift purchases builds to a crescendo this weekend with the annual “****** Friday” shopping day followed by the newer “Cyber Monday.” (Photo by Yuki IWAMURA / AFP) (Photo by YUKI IWAMURA/AFP via Getty Images)

Yuki Iwamura | Afp | Getty Images

This report is from today’s CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

What you need to know today

Summer ended greenThe three major U.S. indexes climbed Friday, making August another month in the green for them, despite the sharp sell-off at the start of the month. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed Monday. China’s Shanghai Composite dropped around 0.6% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index lost 1.53% on the back of China’s manufacturing PMI reading for August, which dropped to a six-month low.

Season for rate cutsAfter interest rates globally rose to their highest in decades, central banks – most prominently the U.S. Federal Reserve – are poised to start cutting rates, or continue reducing them, as in the case of the ********* Central Bank and the Bank of England, among others. Here’s what it means for the global economy and markets.

BYD speeds past rivalsChinese electric vehicle manufacturer BYD sold a record 370,854 passenger vehicles in August. That’s 30% higher than the year earlier, bucking the trend of weakening EV sales in China. Sales of Li Auto and Nio, rival ******** EV manufacturers, dropped in August as compared with July.

(Monkey) King of gamesBlack Myth: Wukong is an action game developed by ******** developer Game Science. It’s China’s first AAA game and is a smash hit, selling more than 10 million units three days after launching. It’s a sign China’s game industry is becoming competitive globally, posing a challenge to U.S. and ********* companies that have dominated the field.

[PRO] Action-packed SeptemberIt’s going to be a packed month ahead, CNBC Pro’s Yun Li notes. The U.S. Federal Reserve will have its policy meeting on Sept. 17-18, where market watchers expect the Fed to cut interest rates. Before that, however, August nonfarm payrolls will be out Sept. 6, and consumer and producer price indexes just a few days later.

The bottom line

The plane encountered some turbulence earlier in the month, but the skies are looking calmer now, increasing the odds for a soft landing.

It’s undeniable that July’s jobs report was bad. Panic spread. Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the U.S. to enter a recession in the next 12 months to 25% from 10%.

But, with the benefit of hindsight, it seems such panic seems overblown. The PCE index came in exactly as anticipated, meaning that inflation is continuing its controlled descent. More significantly, the report said consumer spending rose 0.5%. Even though that number didn’t deviate from expectations, it signals the U.S. economy – which is largely a consumer-driven economy – is going strong.

That’s reflected in a sterling earnings season for the second quarter. The S&P 500 experienced a 13% earnings growth rate, according to LSEG. That beats estimates of 10.6% and is the highest since the fourth quarter of 2021.

On the back of such positive data, Goldman on Friday – once pessimistic about the U.S. economy – revised its third-quarter ****** domestic product growth estimate for the U.S. from 2.5% to 2.7%.

Markets reflected that improvement in

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. With Friday’s gain, all major U.S. indexes finished August in the green. For the month, the S&P 500 gained 2.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.8% and the Nasdaq Composite ticked up 0.7%.

Such performance is more impressive when we recall how the S&P plunged as much as 7.3% and the Nasdaq 10.7% during the sell-off earlier in the month.

And with the Fed all but certain to cut rates a few weeks later, “the ********* economy is poised to grow at or above the long-term 1.8% rate,” – which should also “put a floor under growth and hiring,” wrote Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.

Tamer inflation, hotter economy, stable jobs market: signs that the economy’s cleared for a soft landing.

— CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Lisa Kailai Han, Robert Hum and Pia Singh contributed to this report.

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