Tropical disturbance in Gulf of Mexico will bring more rain to Louisiana

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Tropical disturbance in Gulf of Mexico will bring more rain to Louisiana

BATON ROUGE, La. (BRPROUD) — At the start of September, the peak month for tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently watching three areas for potential development.

Two of the tropical waves are in the Central and Eastern Atlantic while the other disturbance is in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf disturbance will bring some heavy rain impacts to portions of Texas and Louisiana, including the Greater Baton Rouge area. The two waves out in the Atlantic will have to be watched very closely through the next week as well. As of now, there are no immediate tropical impacts expected for Louisiana.

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The NHC is giving a broad area of lower pressure with disorganized showers and storms in the Northwestern Gulf a low chance of development (10% chance over two and seven days) for a tropical system to form.

The disturbance will meander near the coast where some slow development is a possibility if it stays over water. Regardless of development, which seems unlikely at this point, this will keep rain chances higher for portions of Texas and Louisiana along with an isolated risk for flash flooding from heavy rainfall.

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The deepest moisture with this system will slide southward on Monday which means our local rain chances will be more isolated to widely scattered in coverage. Higher moisture will begin to pull northward into Louisiana by Wednesday and Thursday. This will promote the chance for widespread showers and storms.

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Heavy rain at times will be possible which brings a risk for some isolated flash flooding. Urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas will be the most susceptible to any flooding. Rainfall totals over the next five days on average could range around 2-3″ with locally higher amounts.

Central Atlantic Disturbance

A tropical wave in the Central Tropical Atlantic just to the east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized showers and storms currently. However, the NHC gives this wave a medium chance (40%) for gradual development over the next seven days.

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This wave will move westwards toward the Lesser Antilles by Monday and enter the Caribbean by Tuesday. The environment becomes more favorable for some development over the Western Caribbean where a tropical depression could form. This would not be until very late in the week.

Beyond that, there is large uncertainty on the strength of any system and its resulting track. Keep in mind that any single model run you see will continue to struggle until an area of low pressure has formed. There is no immediate threat to Louisiana as of now and it is best to keep up to date with the official forecasts over the next week.

Eastern Atlantic Disturbance

Another tropical wave over Western ******* will move over water later Monday with a few disorganized showers and storms. There is a low chance for some slow development (20%) over the next seven days as the system moves generally west-northwest.

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