The Israel-Hezbollah escalation has arrived. What next for the Middle East?

[Pelican Press 0]

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The *******-Hezbollah escalation has arrived. What next for the Middle East?

The escalation that long felt inevitable 

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 over the weekend, but a 

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on edge woke Monday having escaped all-out war — for now at least.

The intense exchange between ******* and 

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 followed weeks of threats that stoked fears a wider regional conflict.

And on Sunday the U.S. ally launched what it said were pre-emptive strikes on southern Lebanon after detecting preparations for a “large-scale” ******* by the Iran-backed militant group.

Hezbollah then launched hundreds of rockets and drones and claimed to have hit a military intelligence base near Tel Aviv — revenge, it said, for the ************** of a senior commander last month in Beirut.

It was the heaviest ***** the two sides have traded in ten months of simmering conflict.

But both ******* and Hezbollah quickly signaled they were happy to leave things there, for now. Tehran, reiterating its own vow of “definitive” retaliation against *******, touted the Hezbollah attacks as a success. And Washington voiced continued hope for efforts to secure a cease-***** in Gaza.

“The exchange of ***** alongside the ********-Lebanese border … and the post-strike messages from both ******* and Hezbollah seemingly indicate neither is interested in an all-out war,” Avi Melamed, a former ******** intelligence official and negotiator, said in an analysis shared with NBC News on Sunday.

He said the round of ********* could bring some “calm to the region” and “bring an end to the anxious ******* of waiting for rounds of retaliatory strikes that could very well have led to an all-out war.”

The escalation came amid ongoing talks in Egypt’s capital, Cairo, to negotiate a deal between ******* and ****** that would end the fighting in Gaza and secure the release of hostages held by ****** in the ************ enclave.

The high-level talks in Cairo ended on Sunday without any final agreement, though they’re expected to continue at lower levels over the coming days in an effort to close remaining gaps in the negotiations. The talks “have been constructive and were conducted in a spirit on all sides to reach a final and implementable agreement,” a U.S. official told NBC News.

In an address to Lebanese civilians on Sunday, Hezbollah leader 

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 said the group had delayed its response to commander Fuad Shukr’s ************** in order to allow negotiations to continue, and had no intention of targeting civilian infrastructure.

Now, Nasrallah said, “Lebanon can rest.” But he warned that if the results of Sunday’s operation were “not sufficient, we reserve the right to respond.”

Hezbollah, which has the

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 in the world according to weapons watchdogs, has previously said it would halt its attacks on ******* if a cease-***** deal is struck.

******* Defense Forces spokesman Nadav Shoshani said Hezbollah’s ******* might have appeared more subdued due to what ******* has described as its pre-emptive strike carried out by dozens of fighter jets.

“That’s part of why their ******* seemed smaller than what it was and our readiness in our aerial defense systems,” Shoshani told NBC News.

Hezbollah said it ultimately fired around 320 Katyusha rockets toward 11 ******** bases and military sites.

******** Prime Minister 

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 warned at the beginning of a cabinet meeting in Tel Aviv that Sunday’s hostilities were “not the end,” however,

Iran, which has vowed its own retaliation against ******* for the assassinations of Shukr and ****** political leader Ismail Haniyeh, has yet to act.

*******, which typically ******** silent on targeted assassinations, has not publicly claimed responsibility for the killings, but is widely believed to have carried them out.

The country’s new foreign minister, Abbas Aragchi, said late Sunday that Iran’s response “is definitive and will be measured and calculated.” And early Monday his spokesman praised the Hezbollah ******* as highlighting that ******* has lost its “deterrence power.”

“Despite the comprehensive support of states like the ******* States, ******* could not predict the time and place of a limited and managed response by the resistance,” foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani wrote on X.

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#IsraelHezbollah #escalation #arrived #Middle #East

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