Diplomacy takes center stage as Iran holds off retaliation against Israel

[Pelican Press 0]

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Diplomacy takes center stage as Iran holds off retaliation against *******

Along with a surge of combat aircraft and warships, President Biden dispatched three of his top ******** advisers, including CIA Director Bill Burns, to the region this week to try to delay Iranian and Hezbollah military retaliation against *******, and to use that borrowed time to craft an offramp from the collision course that ultimately risks a regional war that could draw in U.S. forces. 

U.S. assessments are that Iran will not seek to disrupt ongoing cease-***** negotiations in Doha aimed at ending the ******-******* war. Those technical talks could stretch into the weekend, but it is unclear how long Iran and its proxies may hold off. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Thursday that an Iranian ******* could come with “little or no warning, and certainly could come in the coming days.” 

Both Iran and its Lebanon-based proxy force Hezbollah have vowed to retaliate in response to the ************** of ****** leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran two weeks ago and the July ******** of top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, but have not specified when or how. ******* said it ******* Shukr in an airstrike. A U.S. official confirmed to CBS News that ******* was responsible for Haniyeh’s ********, though ******* has not publicly acknowledged it.

But multiple sources in the region told CBS News that Iran’s government continues to internally debate whether to use military force as it did on April 13, when it launched hundreds of drones and missiles towards *******, or whether to conduct a covert intelligence operation. Sources also indicated to CBS that Hezbollah’s Lebanon-based leader, Hassan Nasrallah, does not want to act without Iran’s consent, but also does not seek a wider-scale conflict with *******. The U.S. assesses that Hezbollah could launch an ******* with little to no warning.

The U.S. diplomacy, which includes indirect outreach to Tehran via other governments and to Hezbollah via politicians in Beirut, has been aimed at limiting the regional escalation risk. Iran’s Permanent Mission to the ******* Nations told CBS News earlier this month that Hezbollah might not limit itself to military targets within ******* this time, suggesting the group could aim “broader and deeper” within ******** territory at civilian targets. As of 2021,

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Hezbollah had an arsenal of up to 150,000 missiles and rockets, including some with long ranges that collectively have the potential to overwhelm *******’s anti-missile defense system and could hit deep inside ******** territory. 

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A column of ******** military armored vehicles leave following a military operation in the West Bank town of Tubas on Aug. 14, 2024.

Majdi Mohammed / AP

At a press conference in Beirut Wednesday, U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein indicated that the centerpiece of the Biden strategy is to use this narrow window of time to get ******* and ****** to agree to a ******** release and cease-***** deal in the Gaza Strip, which could then help avert a war in Lebanon after 10 months of cross-border attacks between ******* and Hezbollah.

In a furious effort to turn the Biden administration’s Gaza cease-***** framework into an actionable agreement, NSC Director Brett McGurk was in Cairo early this week and traveled on to Doha, Qatar, to help hammer out implementation details. With the U.S. acting as mediator, Burns led talks in Doha with *******’s Mossad director David Barnea, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, and Egypt’s intelligence director Abbas Kamel. 

The U.S. is expected to present a final bridging proposal, which

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U.S. Ambassador to the ******* Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield as ultimately allowing for the release of all hostages, a vaccination campaign to stop the spread of polio, restoration of services including water and electricity to displaced ************ civilians in the Gaza Strip, and includes efforts to help halt fighting in Lebanon. Current numbers from the ******-run Gaza Health Ministry indicate a grim milestone today of 40,000 Palestinians ******* in the ******* 10-month war.

If all of this fails, the U.S. also has a parallel plan similar to when Iran launched its April 13 ******* on *******, to defend ******* with the aid of allies. 

During that spring *******, U.K. military jets were scrambled to help protect U.S. and allied forces in Iraq and Syria, who are stationed in the region as part of the anti-ISIS coalition presence. If a similar ******* is launched by Iran this time around, the new U.K. government is expected to replicate its role. A U.K. official told CBS News, “Our core focus is diplomatic efforts and de-escalation. But as you’d expect, we also stand ready to defend *******, and we remain in constant touch with the U.S. and allies on potential scenarios, including active support to backfill U.S. functions as we did in April.”

A French official also told CBS News, “We’ve been calling on all actors in the region to de-escalate. Alongside the US, we maintain strong diplomatic and military coordination in the region and are helping support in assessing  and monitoring the situation.” 

Parallel to the talks in Doha, French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne was in Lebanon Thursday meeting government leaders, including those close to Hezbollah “to support the ongoing diplomatic efforts in favor of de-escalation in the region,” he

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.

The timing of the Doha meeting, just four days before the start of the Democratic National Convention, also underscores the priority that the Biden-Harris administration is placing on ending the bloodshed and retrieving the hostages held by ****** in Gaza, including five Americans still unaccounted for. The conflict has had a domestic political impact, and polling shows the humanitarian toll has particularly resonated among progressive, ******, ***** and ******* ********* voters. The family of U.S. ******** Omer Neutra spoke at the *********** National Convention on July 17 to plead for more public pressure.  

Charlie D’Agata,

Eleanor Watson and

Olivia Gazis

contributed to this report.

******* & ****** At War

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Margaret Brennan

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Margaret Brennan is the moderator of “Face The Nation with Margaret Brennan.” She is also the Network’s chief foreign affairs correspondent based in Washington, D.C.

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